Elections to the European Parliament took place between 6-9 June 2024. This blog provides information about the election, summarises the results, and sets out what happens next.
These were the first European Parliament elections since the UK’s exit from the EU. SPICe has also published a blog setting out why the election is still important for Scotland and the wider UK.
What is the European Parliament and how are Members elected?
The European Parliament is the only directly elected EU institution. Its core legislative, supervisory and budgetary roles include:
- Legislative: passing EU laws (together with the Council of the EU), deciding on international agreements and enlargements
- Supervisory: democratic scrutiny of EU institutions, approving the European Commission (see below for more information)
- Budgetary: adopting the EU budget (together with the Council of the EU) and approving the EU’s long-term budget.
Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) are directly elected by voters across the EU’s Member States using electoral systems based on proportional representation. Around 360 million Europeans were eligible to vote for 720 MEPs in this election (up from 705 MEPs before the election). The number of seats each Member State gets depends on the size of the population (ranging from six to 96). Member States with smaller populations have more seats per citizen to ensure they have a voice in the decision-making process and that the diversity of parties in smaller states is represented.
Once elected, MEPs sit in political groups based on political affiliation. Political groups must consist of at least 23 MEPs elected in at least seven Member States. Some MEPs do not belong to any political group and are called ‘non-attached Members’.
What are the results?
The information provided below is based on provisional results published at 17:52 on 11 June 2024. It is important to note that the final results may differ in two ways:
- Some Member States have not yet published their finalised results, so vote shares of political parties (and consequently the number of seats) may change. Final results are published by each Member State’s official election authority.
- MEPs do not officially become part of the political groups until after the groups have met and agreed on their membership. This is explained in more detail in the next section.
The most up-to-date results can be found on the European Parliament’s election results website.
As polls had predicted, pro-European centrist parties, who had formed a coalition in the previous term, are on course to hold on to a majority in the European Parliament. According to the provisional results, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) gained ten seats, while the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) lost four. The centre liberal Renew Europe Group lost a significant number of seats (23). These provisional results put the three parties together on 400 out of 720 seats.
Far-right parties made significant gains in the election. The Identity and Democracy Group (I&D) and the European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR) together are on course to win 131 seats, with the I&D Group gaining an additional 9 and the ECR Group gaining an additional 4 seats. Significant numbers of seats were also won by other far-right parties, such as the Alternative for Germany party (15 MEPs) and Hungary’s Fidesz party (11 MEPs), which were not attached to any political group at the end of the last parliamentary term.
Changes in the sizes of political groups may affect the EU’s policy direction in different areas. For example, commentators have suggested that the increase in the I&D and ECR groups may lead to a decrease in support for environmental measures and increased support for more economic, fiscal, and regulatory freedom for Member States. In this context, the large losses by the Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance (down by 18 seats to 53) are particularly significant as this group had championed the Green Deal, the EU’s strategy for achieving climate neutrality by 2050, which could affect the next phases of the deal’s implementation.
While it is anticipated that a majority of MEPs will remain supportive of continued financial and military support for Ukraine, there may be a larger number of MEPs (particularly within the I&D Group and among non-attached MEPs) who may be more reluctant to support such measures.
European Parliament election results can also reflect EU citizens’ views on their national governments, with the effects of this felt in a number of Member States.
In France, the far-right National Rally reached 31% of the vote share, with the French President Emmanuel Macron’s Besoin d’Europe alliance counting significant losses. In reaction, President Macron called snap parliamentary elections for 30 June and 7 July 2024. In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany made significant gains to take 16% of the vote (up from 11% in 2019), the second highest share of the vote behind the Christian Democrats (30%). The governing coalition parties (Social Democratic Party, the Greens and the pro-business Free Democratic Party) counted significant losses. In particular, the Greens won 12%, down from 21% in 2019. In other Member States, far-right parties made gains but did not perform as well as predicted. For example in the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ far-right Freedom Party is on course to win 18% but had been polling at over 30% throughout 2024.
However, losses by governing parties did not take place in all Member States. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy are on course to win the highest vote share at 29%. In Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition also came first and won 37%. In Denmark, Prime Minister Mette Fredericksen’s Social Democrats gained an extra seat and won the highest share of the vote at 17%.
What happens next?
With the European Parliament elections having now taken place, the process for the negotiations and the establishment of the new European Commission will begin.
First, political groups in the European Parliament will meet to discuss and agree their memberships by 16 July 2024 when the first plenary session is scheduled. This session launches the new legislative term. At the plenary, the European Parliament will elect its President and other key positions as well as determine the composition of the Parliament’s committees. You can find out more about these processes on the European Parliament’s website.
At the beginning of the new legislative term, MEPs will also decide whether to progress legislative files that were not finalised during the 2019-2024 term. An article by Euractiv on the 119 pending legislative files highlights legislation on lobby transparency, new genomic techniques, and animal welfare as particularly important.
The European Parliament elections are also the start of the process to determine the composition of the European Commission. The Commission is responsible for drawing up legislative proposals and implementing the decisions of the European Parliament and the Council of the EU. The European Parliament elects the President of the European Commission, vets proposed Commissioners, and approves the College of Commissioners as a whole.
The appointment process for the European Commission is as follows:
- The European Council, made up of heads of state or government of the Member States, proposes a candidate for the President of the European Commission, taking into account the results of the European Parliament elections. The European Parliament is required to vote on the proposed President. If a majority (361 or more MEPs) is not reached, the European Council must propose a new candidate within one month. The previous European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, is seeking re-election and was named the EPP group’s lead candidate in March 2024. Politico has published an article on which other candidates may be under consideration.
- The European Parliament also vets the remaining potential Commissioners. These are first proposed by the Council of the EU and the Commission’s President-elect based on nominations from the Member States. The proposed Commissioners must appear before European Parliament Committees in their prospective fields of responsibility. Negative evaluations can lead to the withdrawal from the process. Politico has published an article on potential Commissioners in the new term.
- The College of Commissioners (the President, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and the other members of the Commission) must then be approved by a majority vote in the European Parliament. If approved, the European Council must agree the composition of the Commission by a qualified majority vote.
An article published by Politico calculates possible coalitions that could provide majorities for a vote on the Commission. However, the article also points out that MEPs are not bound by their membership of a political group and specifically that even within the EPP Group, some MEPs may not vote for von der Leyen. An article by Euronews argues that the French Parliament elections could impact the likelihood of von der Leyen being nominated:
With von der Leyen deeply unpopular in France – even the French EPP delegation opposes her re-election – nominating her days before the ballot could dent Macron’s popularity further.
However, an article by Politico suggests instead that Macron’s election results may boost von der Leyen’s chances.
At the beginning of a new Commission term, the president-elect sets out the Commission’s political priorities for the 2024-2029 term. SPICe will publish a further blog on these priorities and what they may mean for Scotland.
Annie Bosse, SPICe Research
Photo by Oprea Marius on Unsplash