This is a guest blog from Toby James, Professor of Politics and Public Policy at the University of East Anglia, co-director of the Electoral Integrity Project and Honorary Fellow at Queen’s University; Holly Ann Garnett, Associate Professor of Political Science at the Royal Military College of Canada, cross-appointed at Queen’s University, Honorary Research Fellow at the University of East Anglia and co-director of the Electoral Integrity Project, and Sofia Caal-Lam project co-ordinator at the Electoral Integrity Project.
The blog looks at how elections in Scotland compare to those internationally, using data collected by the Electoral Integrity Project. It addresses four key questions and uses new data to answer them.
- What is the quality of elections to the Scottish Parliament?
- Are the relative strengths and weaknesses Scottish parliamentary elections linked to recent changes to electoral law in Scotland?
- How do Scottish elections compare to the rest of the UK, and the wider world?
- What should be the focus of proposed changes to Scottish elections?
As with all guest blogs, the thoughts are those of the author and not those of SPICe or of the Scottish Parliament.
What is the Electoral Integrity Project?
The Electoral Integrity Project was set up in 2012 and focuses on four key issues:
- the quality of elections around the world
- how, when and why elections empower or disempower citizens
- the consequences of failed elections for issues such as security, accessibility and trust
- how to mitigate these problems, based on academic evidence.
Elections in Scotland
Scotland now has greater control over how to run devolved elections (those to the Scottish Parliament and local government in Scotland). A decade ago, the Smith Commission recommended that the Scottish Parliament should have ‘all powers in relation to elections to the Scottish Parliament and local authorities in Scotland’. The Scotland Act 2016 devolved powers to the Scottish Parliament and Ministers giving increased autonomy over all devolved elections (not just those to local government) and matters such as the franchise (who can vote). The role of some of the electoral authorities, such as the Electoral Commission (the independent body which oversees elections in the UK) and the Electoral Management Board for Scotland (which supports and coordinates the work of key election officials such as Electoral Registration Officers and Returning Officers), were subsequently changed by the Scottish Elections (Reform) Act 2020. Also in 2020, all resident foreign nationals with any form of leave to remain were enfranchised to vote in Scottish Parliament and Scottish local government elections by the Scottish Elections (Franchise and Representation) Act 2020.
The Scottish Elections (Representation and Reform) Bill is the latest proposal to seek to make changes to how Scottish elections are run. The Bill would enable some foreign nationals, who already have the right to vote, to stand for elections in Scotland. It would also make trials of electoral procedures conducted at a poll (i.e., electoral pilots), which aim to increase voter turnout, easier to run. Parliament’s Presiding Officer would have enhanced power to delay Scottish Parliament elections and by-elections in emergency situations.
Election quality in Scotland is high
The Electoral Integrity Project has published data on election quality around the world since 2012. The project’s Perceptions of Electoral Integrity dataset is based on a survey of academic experts who provide information on the quality of elections following each national-level election in countries around the world. The Electoral Integrity Project builds a map from the data it collects, which shows where electoral malpractices (for example, electoral fraud or non-compliance with the law governing elections) and issues with electoral integrity occur. This data allows lessons to be learned by those responsible for making the law on elections, regulating elections and administering elections using international data and best practice. Figure 1 is a map of countries where Electoral Integrity Project data is available. Countries on the map in green have higher quality elections and those in red show where electoral malpractices are widespread. This data provides a snapshot for the most recent election in each country as of the end of 2023. The data is updated each year.
Figure 1: Electoral integrity around the world, by the most recent election, as of the end of 2023.
The Project recently collected, for the first time, data on the quality of Scottish Parliamentary elections. Experts were asked for their views on the 2021 Scottish Parliamentary elections. These elections scored 74 out of 100. This places Scotland in the top quartile, alongside Australia and New Zealand. The results for the Scottish Parliamentary elections are slightly higher than the quality of devolved elections in Wales, Northern Ireland and those across the UK as whole (i.e., elections to the UK Parliament) (see Figure 2). Election quality is therefore strong.
Figure 2: Comparing electoral integrity at recent elections in the UK. Provisional data included for the 2024 UK general election.
The Electoral Cycle
Elections involve more than just election day. The process involves months of preparations and organisation to ensure that polling stations are suitable, well equipped, and ready for voters. Prior to this there is a near never-ending process of enrolling new electors, updating the registers with those who have moved, and removing those who have died. Then there is the broader work of reviewing electoral boundaries, designing campaign regulations, and ensuring that the electoral process is widely understood by the voters. The concept of an electoral cycle is widely used to recognise this ongoing work.
Elections commonly have strengths and weaknesses across the electoral cycle. Figure 3 shows election quality at the Scottish Parliamentary Elections 2021 across the electoral cycle. It demonstrates that the strengths of Scottish elections lie in the procedures, results, count, and the work of the electoral officials such as Electoral Registration Officers, Returning Officers and polling station and count staff.
The areas of weaknesses are voter registration, voting processes, media and finance. Figure 4, however, shows that Scotland is not alone here. These are also areas of comparative weakness across the UK.
The indices do not reflect some of the major changes in electoral law in Scotland including the enfranchisement of 16 and 17 year olds and the right to vote based on residency (i.e. the right to vote is linked to living in Scotland). The enfranchisement of younger people and residence-based voting are not included in the indices as there is no global consensus on whether they are positive or negative.
The data does, however, show that Scotland has a much higher score for electoral laws (75 points) than for the UK as a whole (48 points). The relatively low score for electoral law in the UK as a whole reflects the common criticism made by experts that the electoral system for the UK Parliament is unfair to smaller parties. By contrast, elections to the Scottish Parliament are held under an Additional Member System. This electoral system tends to give a much wider number of parties a fairer chance of winning seats than they do in Westminster.
Figure 3: Election quality at the Scottish Parliamentary Elections 2021
Figure 4: Election quality at recent elections across the UK
Strengthening Scotland’s Elections
The data shines a bright light on voter registration as being one area of electoral law where legislators could concentrate efforts. The Electoral Commission reported in 2023 that Scotland’s electoral registers are (as at December 2022) 81% complete and 88% accurate. Put another way, the local registers are missing between 658,000 and 1,033,000 eligible electors. There are also inaccuracies on the register for between 392,000 – 638,000 entries. One policy solution is a move to assisted and automated voter registration. Assisted voter registration involves nudging citizens to register when they interact with other government services. For example, if you have already completed a passport application form then your data could be sent to the electoral services department. Automatic voter registration involves giving electoral registration officers the power to enrol citizens without them having to make an application – i.e., where they have sufficient information to add eligible individuals they are added to the register automatically. The Electoral Integrity Project’s recent study of voter registration practices in 159 countries shows that countries which have assisted and automated voter registration have higher levels of accuracy and completeness. The Welsh Government has responded to this challenge by moving to automatic voter registration system. Scotland could also move in this direction.
The lower score for voting processes is shaped by expert responses in our survey to the questions about whether there were ‘wide gaps in levels of participation between population groups’ and whether there interventions to ‘encourage… voting amongst low-participation groups’. These responses reflect that turnout Scotland varied in 76.2% in Eastwood constituency to 51.5% in Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn. Scotland is not alone in having inequalities in turnout by geographical region, socio-economic statuses and other groups. The 2021 election also took place during a pandemic where turnout was lower than usual. Nonetheless, this suggests that efforts to promote wider participation, are important for strengthening Scottish elections. The Scottish Elections (Representation and Reform) Bill being considered by the Parliament presents an opportunity for electoral pilots focused on widening participation by allowing those involved in the management and administration of elections, like the Electoral Management Board for Scotland and Electoral Registration Officers to suggest pilots.
Other areas of weakness highlighted by the data included the campaign and media environment. Experts acknowledged a balance in television news coverage (i.e., that the rules around each party getting the same level of coverage are generally observed) and fair access to party political broadcasts. However, there were lower scores for questions about whether parties and candidates had equitable access to donations. Expert responses also pointed to the spread of disinformation. Scotland is not alone here – or entirely able to respond to this problem by itself. In fact, the campaign and media environments are main areas of weakness around the world.
The role of money in elections (donations to individual candidates, political parties and money spent on campaigning) and the information environment (i.e., the information provided at elections by candidates, parties and other stakeholders as well as how the information is provided) at election time are also broad, shared problems best addressed through international collaboration. A collaborative response on challenges such as ‘fake news’ and the global nature of social media may be preferable. A further looming problem is the increased activity amongst hostile foreign actors to attempt to influence elections.
Thus, while Scotland has increased control over the quality of its own elections, improving elections is a challenge that goes beyond Scotland’s borders.
Professor Toby S. James, Associate Professor Holly Ann Garnett, and Sofia Caal Lam