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The 2025-26 Budget in 10 charts

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This blog summarises some of the main points emerging from the 2025-26 Scottish Budget, which was published on 4 December 2024. For more detail and context, take a look at the Financial Scrutiny Unit’s Budget briefing and other SPICe blogs relating to the 2025-26 Budget.

The Scottish Budget is set to increase by 1.8% in real terms in 2025-26

However, the 2024-25 baseline numbers do not include £1,344 million in resource Barnett consequentials that have not yet been allocated. When these are added to the 2024-25 baseline, the 2025-26 resource budget grows by 0.8% in real terms.

Changes in the presentation of the budget document this year created some challenges in interpreting the changes for some portfolios, particularly Health and Social Care, Finance and Local Government and Education and Skills where there are typically large changes to budgets during the year.

The size and direction of change to portfolio budgets depends on whether the baseline used is the 2024-25 budget, or the 2024-25 budget after Autumn Budget Revisions

With the exception of the Rural Affairs, Land Reform and Islands portfolio, resource budgets for all portfolios will increase in both cash and real terms next year.

The 2025-26 Budget has a total capital budget of £7,343 million, including the capital block grant, financial transactions and planned borrowing.

Forecasts for GDP growth have improved when compared with last year’s forecasts, but growth is expected to remain modest throughout the forecast period.

Scottish taxpayers who earn at least £30,000 pay more income tax than elsewhere in the UK

In 2025-26, Scottish income taxpayers are forecast to pay £1,676 million more in total than they would under the rUK income tax policy, but the Scottish Budget only benefits by £838 million. This smaller amount is the difference between Scottish income tax revenues and the block grant adjustment (BGA) for income tax.

The amount spent on social security has now risen to almost £7 billion and is forecast to continue rising. Scotland has introduced new benefits or changed eligibility criteria for benefits for which it now has responsibility.

According to the Scottish Government, £4.9 billion of capital and resource funding is for activities that will have a positive impact on the Scottish Government’s climate change goals.

There is performance data for most of the national outcomes, but it is unclear how spending links to these outcomes

Financial Scrutiny Unit and Data Visualisation , SPICe