The ‘End Child Poverty Coalition’ has published its annual update of local child poverty statistics. This blog takes a look at the Scottish data on relative child poverty after housing costs.
Across Scotland as a whole, official statistics record relative child poverty as 22% in 2023-24. The local statistics are compiled on a slightly different methodology and show relative child poverty at 23%.
While the local statistics cannot be directly compared to the official statistics for Scotland and the UK they are helpful in showing patterns of poverty across the country.
The first map shows how child poverty rates varied from 36% in Glasgow to 12% in East Renfrewshire in 2023-24. However most local authorities have broadly similar levels of child poverty with 18 local authorities having child poverty rates between 20% and 25%.
The figures for Glasgow are particularly important. Around 11% of under 18s live in Glasgow. Because it is both the most populous local authority and has the highest levels of child poverty, 17% of all the children in Scotland who are in poverty live in Glasgow. That’s around 39,000 children.
Child Poverty Reduction Targets
The Child Poverty (Scotland) Act 2017 set a Scotland wide target of 18% relative child poverty in 2023-24 falling to 10% in 2030-31.
Only four local authorities had child poverty rates at or below the 18% target in 2023-24 and these same four were below 18% nearly a decade earlier in 2014-15.
The second map shows how much the child poverty rate changed between 2014-15 and 2023-24. Only ten local authorities had a lower child poverty rate in 2023-24 than they had in 2014-15. Although most (27) local authorities had a lower child poverty rate in 2023-24 compared to 2022-23, it’s too early to tell whether this is the start of a downward trend, and the methodology used to compile the statistics makes it very difficult to be certain about the change over a single year.
Looking at the bigger picture and considering the decade as a whole suggests there has been little sustained shift towards the target.
The largest percentage point reduction in child poverty across the decade was in East Renfrewshire – which had historically very low levels of child poverty to begin with. The largest percentage point increase was in Glasgow – increasing nine percentage points from 27% to 36% over the decade. This is particularly significant for the national target because of Glasgow’s large population.
Child Poverty Delivery Plans
At a national level, the Scottish Government has a delivery plan for tackling child poverty. A progress report is due before the end of June and it is currently developing the third such plan which will set out action towards meeting the final 2030 targets. These include reducing relative child poverty to 10%.
At a local level, local authorities and health boards are required to develop local child poverty action reports. The latest versions of these reports are published by the Improvement Service.
Both the local and national trends across a decade illustrate how long it takes for policy to impact on poverty rates. The Scottish Child Payment, as a cash payment, has a quicker impact than most, but the first full year of full payments were only made in 2023-24. (It was introduced in 2021 and extended to under 16s in November 2022).
At the Social Justice and Social Security Committee on 29 May the Cabinet Secretary for Social Justice, Shirley-Anne Somerville, MSP said:
“a lot of the impact of our key policies such as the Scottish Child Payment have only taken effect from 2023-24. On that basis we wouldn’t expect to see a substantive reduction in long term trends at this stage.”
Looking at the local data emphasises just how difficult it is to shift long standing geographical patterns.
Camilla Kidner, SPICe Research