Introduction
The Scottish Government’s draft Climate Change Plan update, published in December 2020, included a commitment to “reduce car kilometres by 20% by 2030”, from the level recorded in 2019. That is a reduction of 7.349 billion kilometres, down to a level of car traffic last seen in 1994.
SPICe previously considered progress towards meeting this target in briefings published in 2021 and 2023, with the latter concluding that:
…it seems clear that there has been no real reduction in car use. Despite the Scottish Government’s focus on measures aimed at making alternatives to car travel more attractive, bus and rail use remains below pre-covid levels and there is no evidence of a significant increase in walking or cycling for transport purposes.
Any hope of meeting the 20% reduction in car mileage target will require continued, significant investment in alternatives to car travel and the speedy roll-out of demand management measures across the country.
Audit Scotland’s January 2025 report, Sustainable transport: reducing car use, identified similar travel trends, and concluded that the Scottish Government was “unlikely” to achieve the 20% reduction by 2030.
The Public Audit Committee questioned the Cabinet Secretary for Transport about this report at its meeting of 23 April 2025, at which she announced the abandonment of the 20% target. Instead, she highlighted recent advice from the UK Climate Change Committee that moving 7% of car trips to walking, cycling, and public transport by 2035 would be sufficient to meet climate change goals, while acknowledging the wider benefits of car use reduction.
This post builds on previous SPICe publications looking at car use reduction, considering travel trends in Scotland, action taken to reduce car use, the Scottish Government’s new car use reduction goal, and action needed to support its delivery.
This is an extended post, so we have added a pop-out table of contents to help with navigation.
Travel trends in Scotland
As shown in Chart 1 below, the distance driven by car has been on a consistent upward trend for the lifetime of the Scottish Parliament, except for a significant fall caused by pandemic related travel restrictions and subsequent changes in travel patterns. However, car travel has since resumed its upward trend.
This trend continues into 2025, with the latest provisional Department for Transport figures for April 2024 to March 2025 showing a further 0.8% increase in the distance travelled by car and taxi across Britain (Scottish figures are not yet available) – just 2.9% lower than the all-time high recorded in 2019. It seems likely that car travel in Scotland will mirror this wider 2024-25 increase.
At the same time, as shown in Chart 2 below, bus use has been on a downward trend for decades, with a significant pandemic related fall in patronage and a less pronounced rebound than car traffic. ScotRail patronage had been slowly growing over the devolution period, mirroring a UK-wide growth in rail passenger numbers. Again, ScotRail patronage has not recovered to the same extent as car traffic.
In total, there were 517 million bus and rail trips in 1999-00 and 415 million in 2023-24, a fall of almost 20% – a period over which car mileage increased by more than 14%.
The distance travelled by bike increased by 69% between 1999 and 2023 – from 238 million kilometres to 403 million. However, a coronavirus related boom in cycling (which saw cyclists pedal 597 million kilometres in 2020, a 150% increase on 1999) has not been sustained – with the distance travelled by bike falling by 32% between 2020 and 2023.
Statistics on the distance covered on foot are not routinely collected, although Scotland-wide statistics on walking indicate that there is likely to have been a modest increase in walking as a mode of transport over the devolution period.
Delivering reductions in car use
Transport Scotland published a consultation draft of A Route Map to achieve a 20 per cent reduction in car kilometres by 2030 in January 2022. This set out 32 interventions aimed at reducing car use. The following table briefly outlines progress in delivering these interventions.
Planned intervention | Outcome |
1a. Finalising and adopting the Fourth National Planning Framework (NPF4) by summer 2022 | NPF4 was adopted by Scottish Ministers on 13 February 2023. |
1b. Extending superfast broadband to 100 per cent of premises in Scotland | OFCOM report that 96% of Scottish homes had access to a superfast broadband service in January 2025. Work continues to connect the remaining homes. |
1c. Mapping digital connectivity alongside transport connectivity | No output to date. |
1d. Issuing a refreshed Fair Work First Action Plan in Spring 2022 | The Fair Work Action Plan was published in December 2022. |
1e. Progressing the Work Local Challenge Programme | The Work Local Challenge Programme was wound up two months after the publication of the draft Route Map. |
1f. Delivering the NHS Scotland Climate Emergency and Sustainability Strategy’s actions to reduce the need to travel | The NHS Scotland climate emergency and sustainability strategy was published in August 2022. The Annual NHS Scotland Climate Emergency & Sustainability Report 2024 reports that NHS fleet and business travel emissions increased by 30% between 2019-20 and 2022-23, most likely due to a significant increase in distance driven – although data collection issues may account for some of this increase. |
2a. Finalising and adopting NPF4 by summer 2022 | NPF4 was adopted by Scottish Ministers on 13 February 2023. |
2b. Delivering the Housing to 2040 actions to build stronger and more vibrant communities | Academics at the UK Collaborative Centre for Housing Evidence reported in November 2024 that “…observers would agree that the Housing to 2040 strategy is in significant difficulty, and with it the ambitious goals to elevate the housing system so that it can make a sustainable long-term contribution to prosperity, meeting housing need, and reducing poverty and inequality.” |
2c. Continuing to embed the Place Principle, and promote the use of the Place Standard Tool | Ongoing. |
2d. Delivering 20-minute neighbourhoods; improved town and city centres and a ‘loves local’ culture | Planning stakeholders, such as the Royal Town Planning Institute, questioned on this issue as part of the Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee’s 2025 annual review of NPF4 argue that it is too early to tell whether such policies are delivering desired outcomes. |
2e. Developing guidance and an appraisal framework for Mobility Hubs | No output to date. |
2f. Introducing a safer speed limit of 20mph on appropriate roads in built up areas by 2025 | The introduction of 20mph speed limits is being taken forward by individual Scottish local authorities. |
3a. Publishing the Cycling Framework and Delivery Plan for Active Travel in Scotland in 2022 | The Cycling Framework and Delivery Plan for Active Travel in Scotland 2022- 2030 was published in August 2022. |
3b. Increasing investment in active travel | Audit Scotland state in its Sustainable Travel report of January 2025 that “Although budget allocations for active travel and sustainable transport have increased since 2019/20, the actual amounts spent have reduced.” |
3c. Investing £50 million on Active Freeways | No Active Freeways have been planned, specified, or built. |
3d. Improving access to cycles and the transportation of cycles | A total of 13,244 children’s bikes were distributed under three schemes between August 2021 and March 2025, including fleets of bikes used by schools for cycle training. A pilot public cycle hire scheme is due to launch in Edinburgh on 3 September 2025. There has been no significant increase in bike carrying capacity on ScotRail trains, or bus services. |
3e. Continuing to take action on road safety, in line with Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 which includes a renewed focus on pedestrians and cyclists | Transport Scotland statistics show there has been little recent progress in reducing pedestrian and cyclist fatalities. The annual average number of pedestrian fatalities during 2014-2018 was 41, reducing to an annual average of 39 between 2019-2023. For cyclists, there was an annual average of six fatalities between 2014-2018, rising to eight per year between 2019-2023. There have been reductions in the number of serious injuries recorded for both pedestrians and cyclists over this period. |
3f. Introducing Low Emission Zones (LEZs) in Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh, and Glasgow in Spring 2022 | Enforcement of LEZ restrictions began on 1 June 2023 in Glasgow, 30 May 2024 in Dundee, and 1 June 2024 in Edinburgh and Aberdeen. |
3g. Continuing our work on review of transport governance | No output to date. |
3h. Commissioning a Fair Fares Review | The final report of the Fair Fares Review was published in March 2024. Recommendations being taken forward include the abolition of peak fares on ScotRail services, free rail travel for companions of blind travellers, and enhanced ferry concessions for young island residents. |
3i. Providing nationwide free bus travel for Scotland’s young people aged under 22 from January 2022 | The national concessionary travel scheme for young people began on 31 January 2022. |
3j. Continuing to provide long-term capital investment to bus transport | The Scottish Government cancelled the £500 million Bus Partnership Fund in 2025, after just 5.4% (£26.9 million) of funding had been allocated. The replacement Bus Infrastructure Fund has an allocation of £10 million for budget year 2025-26. |
3k. Introducing a Community Bus Fund | The Scottish Government cancelled the Community Bus Fund in 2025, with a total of £7 million having been allocated through the scheme. |
3f. Establishing a National Smart Ticketing Advisory Board | The National Smart Ticketing Advisory Board was established in November 2023. It has not published any advice, recommendations, or reports to date. |
3m. Investing in the maintenance and enhancement of the rail network | The Scottish Government continues to fund ScotRail, Caledonian Sleeper, and Network Rail operations in Scotland. No extension of the Scottish rail network is currently planned. |
3n. Supporting integrated journeys at ferry terminals | No output to date. |
3o. Pavement parking ban enforcement and other car parking interventions | The prohibitions on pavement, dropped kerb, and double parking came into force on 11 December 2023. Local authorities are responsible for the enforcement of these prohibitions, with some authorities already undertaking enforcement, while others are developing plans to do so. |
3p. Developing Workplace Parking Levy (WPL) regulations and guidance | The Workplace Parking Licensing (Scotland) Regulations 2022 came into force on 4 March 2022. No workplace parking levy is currently in place and no local authority is developing a workplace parking levy proposal. |
3q. Delivering the NHS Scotland Climate Emergency and Sustainability Strategy’s actions to increase active travel and the use of public and community transport to NHS sites | The NHS Scotland climate emergency and sustainability strategy was published in August 2022. No national data is available to assess progress. |
3r. Continuing the £300,000 annual investment in the Eco-Schools Scotland Programme as part of the Learning for Sustainability Programme: | The Scottish Government continues to fund the eco-schools programme with £425,000 being allocated in 2025-26. |
4a. Testing the viability of Mobility as a Service (MaaS) in Scotland | The Scottish Government invested £2 million in a MaaS pilot programme. The final evaluation report concluded that “MaaS alone does not produce substantial modal shift” and argued that measures to reduce active and sustainable travel journey times, increase reliability, and the availability of shared travel options were required to support MaaS as an alternative to travelling by car. |
4b. Re-promoting the benefits of car-sharing and car-cubs post-pandemic | No action to date. |
In addition to these specific interventions, the draft Route Map committed the Scottish Government to commissioning research into options aimed at actively discouraging car use, often referred to as travel demand management (TDM), such as road user charging or road space reallocation. This research was intended to support a Car Demand Management Framework to be published by 2025.
Transport Scotland published the results of this research, Travel Demand Management Options Study, in December 2024. The research focused on the development of a Scotland-wide road user charging scheme, delivered through a national scheme or network of local/regional schemes, and concluded that:
From this assessment it is likely that either locally or nationally implemented TDM schemes could achieve the 20% car kilometre reduction target in an equitable manner.
Alongside the research report, the Scottish Government published its policy position on TDM measures which ruled out the introduction of a Scotland-wide road user charging scheme. Instead, the Scottish Government argued for the development of a UK-wide approach to TDM, with a focus on motoring taxation. The Scottish Government has not published a Car Demand Management Framework.
Policy effectiveness
A review of academic research undertaken into car use reduction in European cities has identified 12 effective interventions that can be pursued by national and local governments, public authorities and institutions. These are:
- Congestion charge (road user charge)
- Workplace parking charges
- Limited traffic zones (limiting car access to city/town centres)
- Parking and traffic control
- Mobility services for commuters (e.g. shuttle buses to stations/park and ride)
- Mobility services for universities (e.g. campus-city centre shuttles)
- Car sharing action plan (e.g. development of car club points at rail/bus stations)
- Workplace travel planning (includes incentives to use active/sustainable modes)
- School travel planning (includes improved walking/cycling infrastructure)
- University travel planning (includes incentives to use active/sustainable modes)
- Personalised travel planning (may include discounts for public transport use)
- App for sustainable mobility (gamification to incentivise sustainable travel use)
There is little cross-over between these interventions and the initiatives identified in the draft Route Map. The most obvious difference being the Scottish Government’s rejection of road user charging, which was identified by academics as the most effective car use reduction intervention, and a lack of progress on other TDM measures such as workplace parking charges, or road space reallocation to pedestrians, cyclists and buses in town and city centres.
This is not to say that the initiatives being pursued by the Scottish Government are not worthwhile or that long-term goals, such as the development of 20-minute neighbourhoods, may not help slow or reverse the growth in car use over the longer term. However, the 32 interventions listed in the Route Map were already in place or under development by the Scottish Government when it was launched, and most were not designed with reducing car use as their sole, or even secondary, aim.
The new car use reduction policy and target
The Scottish Government published Achieving Car Use Reduction in Scotland: A Renewed Policy Statement on 12 June 2025. This confirmed the continuing commitment of both the Scottish Government and local authorities (represented by COSLA) to car use reduction. While the policy statement did not include a target for car use reduction it did highlight that:
The UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) in its recent Scotland’s Carbon Budgets Advice for the Scottish Government indicates that Scotland would now need a 6% car use reduction by 2035 in line with its proposed meeting of carbon budgets.
It is important to note that this “6% car use reduction” does not mean less driving. The Climate Change Committee’s Scotland’s Carbon Budget Document states:
Improvements to make buses and active travel more attractive, affordable, and accessible encourage 6% of baseline car demand (measured in car-kilometres) to switch to public transport and active travel by 2035. While car-kilometres continue to grow from today’s levels, modal shift reduces the growth rate compared to the baseline. The actual reduction depends on potential rebound effects, as EV owners may drive more due to lower operating costs (Figure 3.5a).
The data presented by the Climate Change Committee in Figure 3.5a predicts an increase in the expected distance travelled by car in Scotland from 36.51 billion kilometres in 2025 to between 38.32 and 40.55 billion kilometres in 2035 – a potential increase in distance driven of between 5% and 11%. Given that these scenarios include the predicted 6% modal shift from car to public transport, walking and cycling, to keep car use in 2035 at 2025 levels would require an actual reduction in predicted car mileage of between 11% and 17%.
Had the Scottish Government’s original 20% reduction in car use target been achieved in 2030, cars would have been driven 29.4 billion kilometres that year. The Climate Change Committee predicts that cars will be driven between 37.41 and 38.26 billion kilometres in 2030, that is between 27.2% and 30.1% higher than if the original 2030 reduction target had been met. The Climate Change Committee predicts that the distance travelled by car will continue to increase year on year until 2050 – the last year forecast.
Setting and delivering the new target
In a June 2025 letter to the Net-Zero, Energy and Transport Committee, the Cabinet Secretary for Transport advised that Transport Scotland has commissioned further evidence to inform the revision of its car use reduction target.
What might be required to deliver an actual reduction in car use? Considering the trends in car use predicted by the Climate Change Commission, achieving any reduction from current levels is likely to be a significant challenge. Research evidence highlighted above indicates that improvements to public transport and active travel options alone are not enough and that travel demand management measures are an essential element of any car use reduction strategy. The introduction of road user charging schemes, workplace parking charges, and road space reallocation to buses, bikes, and pedestrians, supported by robust parking management, must feature in any car use reduction strategy for it to have a chance of delivering its goals.
As acknowledged in the Renewed Policy Statement, action is likely to be required at a UK, Scottish, and local level. The most significant tool available at the UK level is motoring taxation. The UK Parliament’s Transport Committee argued in a 2022 Report that falling fuel and vehicle excise duty income, principally caused by the expected growth in electric car ownership, means that the UK Government will have to develop alternative motoring taxation mechanisms, most probably some form of road pricing. This could be an opportunity to pursue alternatives which help minimise congestion while reducing car use for those trips that can easily be made by alternative modes. It could also be designed to reduce costs for essential motoring in remote rural areas where walking, cycling or buses are not a viable alternative to driving for many trips.
The key tools available to the Scottish Government to drive car use reduction are its legislative and policy making powers, and management of significant transport capital and revenue budgets. Evidence outlined in the table above shows that commitments to fund bus priority, walking and cycling infrastructure have not been met over recent years. Recent policy driven increases in transport revenue expenditure have largely focussed on supporting free bus travel for under twenty-twos and peak time rail travellers – despite this focus, rail and bus patronage has failed to recover to pre-pandemic levels. Delivering car use reduction may require a rethink of transport capital investment to better support the delivery of walking, cycling and public transport infrastructure. Similarly, consideration could be given to the reallocation of revenue support for public transport to better support car use reduction, and the delivery of social and environmental goals. The promised review of transport governance structures, and a possible review of the legislation governing road space reallocation, recommended in the final report of the Scottish Government appointed Active Travel Task Force in 2018, may also help support policy delivery.
Successful intervention at a local level will likely require a focus on tailoring travel demand management measures to local circumstances and the development of high quality, clear and uninterrupted walking, cycling and public transport networks designed to meet local needs, with a focus on offering a real alternative to car travel for as many trips as possible.
Alan Rehfisch, Senior Researcher (Transport and Planning)