This guest blog is written by Dr Elizabeth Lawson as part of the SPICe Academic Fellowship Scheme. The scheme enables academics to work on projects with the Parliament in support of parliamentary scrutiny.
This four-part blog series explores reform of water, wastewater and drainage policy in Scotland. This blog focusses on key challenges facing Scotland’s water industry. This blog series accompanies a SPICe briefing ‘Scotland’s water industry: overview of regulation and key challenges’. As with all guest blogs, what follows are the views of the authors and not those of SPICe, or of the Scottish Parliament.
Introduction
Managing Scotland’s water environment is increasingly complex. Climate change, migrating populations and increasing demand are impacting water resources. The Scottish Government has committed to reviewing water industry policy to assess how legislation can mitigate the impacts of climate change on water, sewerage and drainage services to increase resilience.
This review has been prompted by some key pressures which are impacting Scotland’s water resources and services.
Key challenges for Scotland’s water sector
Scotland’s water environment is changing. Shifting weather patterns, a migrating population, changing water consumption habits, and the unknown risk of emerging contaminants are contributing to an unpredictable future. As a result, Scotland’s water sector must be ready to adapt to uncertainty.
Extreme weather
The Met Office’s UK Climate predictions project warmer, wetter winters and drier summers. Recent extreme climatic events such as water scarcity and flooding provide a reminder that the global climate crisis is impacting Scotland now.
A report by NatureScot forecasts that the number of extreme drought events in Scotland is likely to increase in the future, from an average of one event every 20 years (baseline period of 1981-2001), to one event every three years from 2021 -2040.
The Scottish Government has stated that more than half of Scotland’s population will be at risk of water scarcity by 2050 during very dry periods. More recently, the exceptional period of dry weather in spring/summer 2025, resulted in SEPA issuing water scarcity warnings, particularly in the east of Scotland. The UK’s mean temperature for April was 9.6 °C, 1.7 °C above the long-term average. Scotland’s preparedness for managing potential drought conditions is explored in a separate SPICe blog.
Total rainfall from extremely wet days increased by around 17% for the UK overall in the decade (2008-2017), with the largest changes seen in Scotland. It is expected that Scotland will experience more intense storms.
For example, on 20 June 2023, the equivalent of 10 days of rainfall fell in an hour at Hampden Park, Glasgow. This increase in intensity of storms is likely to increase pressure on Scotland’s ageing water infrastructure, which could result in a rise of sewage pollution events.
High consumption and increased demand
The predicted increase in average temperatures is likely to bring with it an increase in water demand for a variety of uses such as:
- Agriculture, horticulture and wider industry
- tourism
- low carbon alternatives to energy production e.g. hydrogen and biofuels
- drinking water and services essential to public health.
Additionally, the potential impact of Scotland’s changing population on water resources and services is highlighted in Scottish Water’s recent long-term strategy.
As the overall population of Scotland continues to grow, there is an additional migratory shift from west to east. Changing demographics is also resulting in an increased number of households as more people live alone or in smaller family units.
By 2043 there are projected to be 4.3 million households in Scotland which is an average increase of 13,000 plus households a year. The increased demand will put additional pressure on Scotland’s water resources if the rate of water consumption remains at current levels.
Current water use in Scotland is higher than in other parts of the UK and Europe. A recent BBC article highlights a cultural assumption of abundant supply, and that only a small number of Scottish households have water meters, which can contribute to a lack of awareness of water use.
Rainwater drainage and sewer flooding
Construction of new developments can also contribute to an increased area of impermeable surfaces through the construction of houses, roads, driveways and a shift to replacing grass with artificial alternatives.
A move to more hard surfaces means that when it does rain, more rainwater runs off the surface quickly and into drains. Increased surface water in sewers is linked to sewer flooding, caused when a drain or sewer becomes full due to heavy rainfall and overflows either inside a property or outside in the garden, street or other public areas. Sewer flooding can also be caused by blockages as a result of inappropriate items being flushed down the toilet or fat, oil and grease being put down the kitchen sink.
Scottish Water’s Climate Change adaptation plan states that 2,300 properties are currently at risk of sewer flooding across Scotland and that without adaptation measures, this is projected to increase by 60% (around 4,800 properties) by 2050.
Improved strategic planning for water resources could ensure a greater ability to plan for times of too little and too much precipitation. Opportunities for reform of the current legislation is explored in part two of this blog series.
Dr Elizabeth Lawson, SPICe Academic Fellow, Newcastle University
Title image: Low water levels at Backwater reservoir, north west Angus, August 2025. Credit: Scottish Water