On 22 May 2024, the new First Minister, John Swinney MSP, made a statement to Parliament setting out his government’s four priorities. These four priorities – eradicating child poverty, growing the economy, tackling the climate emergency and improving public services – are expected to inform the policies of the Scottish Government between now and the next Scottish Parliament election due to be held in May 2026.
This blog provides a short summary of the Scottish Government’s priorities as set out in the First Minister’s speech. It is not intended to be an exhaustive summary of all commitments but reflects areas that may be of interest to parliamentary committees and individual MSPs – and seeks to give wider context for each of these.
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Context
Recognising that he leads a minority government; the First Minister started his speech by stating that his government would work with “any party that comes forward with ideas about how we can make our country a better place to live”. The First Minister added that the government will “engage positively in considering ideas from all sources”.
The First Minister’s acknowledgement of the importance of the Scottish Parliament in scrutinising the Scottish Government’s record and plans was notable; perhaps a nod to the fact that this is a minority government which will need to seek some common ground and consensus across the Chamber.
Also notable was the threading together of priority areas – an emphasis that they all interrelate. The challenge of scrutinising cross-cutting policies and actions has already been a focus for the Scottish Parliament in this parliamentary session, for example on climate change, and in examining whether budgetary decisions follow policy direction.
The First Minister also sought to defend his party’s record in government stating that he wanted his government to “build on the record of the SNP government over the last 17 years, which has changed Scotland for the better”. In responses to the First Minister’s speech, opposition parties sought to highlight that the government’s priorities reflected a continuity of approach and that its record should be judged over the last 17 years.
The fiscal context
The First Minister’s statement argued that the overall context in which he aims to deliver on his four priorities is highly constrained by the fiscal context in which the Scottish Government operates.
“The Finance Secretary will update Parliament on our expectations of the financial position, but I can say to Parliament today that the cumulative effect of the high inflation we have experienced, austerity, and Brexit is placing enormous financial pressure on the resources available to the government – and will have an effect on the priorities we can deliver.”
The financial update he referred to will come in the form of the Medium-Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) which was originally due to be published by the Scottish Government on 30 May. However, with the recent change of First Minister, the Scottish Government has delayed publication of this fiscal report, also requesting that the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) pause their forecasts which underpin the MTFS.
A new date for MTFS publication of 20 June 2024 was proposed by the Scottish Government in a letter to the Finance and Public Administration Committee (FPAC) on Tuesday 21 May 2024. The Committee replied stating that it was “deeply disappointed at the significant delay in publishing the MTFS”. However, the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government wrote back to the Committee on 22 May reiterating her intentions to stick to the 20 June MTFS publication date. She argued that:
“An earlier date risks the MTFS not providing an accurate view of the intentions and plans of this Government, in turn impacting the usefulness of the MTFS to Committees taking forward their pre-budget scrutiny.”
During his statement the First Minister stated that his pre-summer Programme for Government will be produced in “lock-step” with the fiscal strategy, ensuring that the strategies and approaches are aligned.
The four priorities
In his statement, the First Minister set out the four priorities which he said would guide his government’s decisions on policy and budget. These 4 priorities are:
- To eradicate child poverty.
- To grow Scotland’s economy.
- Tackling climate emergency by investment in green energy and infrastructure.
- To improve Scotland’s public services as an investment in Scotland’s future health, equality and prosperity.
The First Minister told Parliament that he believes the four priorities are inter-linked:
“Eradicating child poverty, growing the economy and tackling the climate emergency all link together to support my fourth key priority to improve Scotland’s public services – not as a cost, but as a vital investment in our future health, equality and prosperity.”
Whilst the First Minister highlighted his four priorities, there was little in the way of detail setting out how the Scottish Government will pursue policies to achieve these priorities, either in terms of policy plans or in respect of proposed legislation. In addition, several policy areas were absent from the speech such as the constitution, higher education, agriculture and transport.
Whilst the First Minister’s statement was light on constitutional issues, it was clear that the Scottish Government still wishes to pursue the case for independence. It would seem that the new First Minister will continue the approach of his predecessor by focusing not directly on a referendum at this time, but on highlighting how independence would allow Scotland to address the challenges it faces “on our own terms”. The First Minister stated:
“I recognise it is the Scottish Government’s responsibility to deliver public services in Scotland, and the importance of Parliament scrutinising our record and our plans.
But as we wrestle with these challenges, I hope we will also see some recognition from across this chamber that the context within which we work is significantly affected by Westminster austerity and the damage of Brexit.
In my view, there is a very simple answer to that challenge.
And that is for Scotland to be able to chart her own course economically and to make the best decisions on our own terms. For me that would involve re-joining the European Union as an independent country and making our own economic decisions.”
The First Minister told Parliament that his government will bring forward a Programme for Government before the Parliament’s summer recess which begins at the start of July. Within hours of the First Minister’s statement, the UK Prime Minister announced there would be a General Election on 4 July 2024. It is not clear how this might influence the Scottish Government’s short-term plans such as publishing a Programme for Government.
Eradicating child poverty
When the Child Poverty (Scotland) Act 2017 was introduced, the Policy Memorandum that accompanied the Bill stated that “The Scottish Government’s long-term ambition is to eradicate child poverty.” The First Minister re-affirmed that ambition in his statement.
Across the period 2020-2023, an estimated 240,000 children in Scotland were in relative poverty (around one in four children), so the commitment to eradicate child poverty is certainly ambitious, as highlighted in the chart below.
Proportion of children in Scotland in relative poverty, after housing costs
The 2017 Act includes a statutory duty to reduce child poverty to 10% by 2030. The commitment to eradicate it completely does not include a timescale.
The Scottish Child Payment gives an indication of the scale of action required to ‘shift the dial’ on child poverty. The Scottish Child Payment is forecast to cost £457 million this year and Scottish Government modelling suggests the Scottish Child Payment might take 60,000 children out of poverty, reducing the poverty rate by six percentage points. The same modelling suggests that the wider package of social security and employability support could take 100,000 children out of poverty this year.
Clearly a lot more would be needed to take another 140,000 children out of poverty (and that’s without getting into the complications that this would move the ‘poverty line’ and so wouldn’t necessarily ‘eradicate’ child poverty).
The statutory and policy framework for reducing child poverty already exists. Annual progress reports are published each June and there is a statutory requirement to publish a further delivery plan covering 2026-30. It’s not yet clear how the current policy approach will evolve to address the plan to eradicate child poverty completely.
Growing Scotland’s economy
It was notable that when discussing his government’s second priority – growing the economy – the First Minister started with a pledge to “remove obstacles” to growth. Although he didn’t elaborate, this could signal a shift towards easing the regulatory burden on businesses. Kate Forbes, Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Gaelic has stated that her plan is to “prioritise jobs and wages, not bureaucracy”. The First Minister then went on to mention attracting investment and supporting innovation and entrepreneurship as priorities.
Previous SNP First Ministers had pledged to build a ‘wellbeing economy’ in Scotland. There was no mention of the word ‘wellbeing’ in the new First Minister’s speech. He did, however, draw a clear link between economic growth and eradicating child poverty. In doing so, he announced £16 million of funding to expand access to childcare services to “support low-income families to enter and sustain employment”. After years in which social security has done much of the heavy lifting on the Scottish Government’s child poverty agenda, there was a clear emphasis in the First Minister’s speech on supporting low income parents into work, particularly through childcare provision.
The work on developing wraparound school age childcare has been progressing since the start of the Parliamentary session and the £16 million is intended “to tackle poverty and help families by expanding access to childcare services within six early adopter community projects”. There are currently four Early Adopter Communities in Dundee, Inverclyde, Clackmannanshire, and Glasgow and new Early Adopter Communities are to be established in Fife and Shetland. At this stage it is not clear how the £16 million will be profiled over two years nor if this is new money or was already planned as part of the programme to develop this service.
There was some continuity with previous SNP First Ministers’ economic priorities. The importance of support for innovation was highlighted, and the Techscalar programme that was launched in 2022 as part of the National Strategy for Economic Transformation. The First Minister also highlighted the economic impact of the creative industries, and repeated a pledge to grow investment in culture and screen by £100 million ‘in the coming years’.
Finally, under this priority, the First Minister linked economic growth with the energy industry’s transition to net zero. In his statement, the First Minister focused on the economic opportunities from renewables, reiterating that there could be 77,000 jobs in renewables by 2050 and emphasising the significant opportunities for Scotland’s supply chain from the expected £25 billion investment in Scotwind. He sidestepped any mention of the behavioural changes and economic trade-offs required to meet net zero targets.
Tackling the climate emergency by investment in green energy and infrastructure
The third priority was ‘tackling the climate emergency by investing in green energy and infrastructure’. While the need to address “the twin crises of climate change and biodiversity loss” was highlighted, the emphasis was on the opportunities from the move to net zero emissions – and particularly linking the priorities on the economy and climate.
The First Minister cited the recent investments in a subsea cable manufacturing site in Cromarty Firth and in infrastructure at the Ardersier Port in the Moray Firth; both part of the new Inverness and Cromarty Firth Green Freeport. Reference was made to jobs and turnover from Scotland’s renewable energy sector, but also to the role of communities, and that there should be a shared agenda with businesses for delivery of net zero. It was also suggested that the forthcoming Programme for Government will involve ‘decision-making on … key issues on energy, on oil and gas…’. There are recent SPICe blogs on the economic and supply chain impacts of wind energy in Scotland and on the potential role of the Scottish carbon capture and storage project, Acorn.
The Scottish Government has experienced a period of uncertainty on climate policy. The Climate Change Committee (CCC) published a progress report for Scotland in March, which concluded there was no comprehensive strategy for emission reductions and that key climate targets were no longer credible. The Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero and Energy accepted the CCC’s conclusion that ‘this Parliament’s interim 2030 target is out of reach’, and in April set out an intention to introduce ‘expedited legislation’ to reflect a revised timetable for achieving net zero by 2045, with a revised approach based on five-yearly carbon budgeting, alongside a climate change policy package. SPICe has published a related blog.
Evidence of global nature decline and dramatic declines in Scotland led the Scottish Government in 2019 to commit to a ‘step change’ in efforts to halt biodiversity loss, which studies have shown is essential to supporting our wellbeing and economy. This is expected to include the introduction of a Natural Environment Bill – parts of which have already been consulted on – to include statutory nature targets. Previous Programme for Government proposals included a ‘right to a healthy environment’ as part of wider human rights legislation. The Scottish Government is seeking to meet commitments under a new Global Biodiversity Framework through the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy and draft Biodiversity Delivery Plan consulted on in 2023, which has been scrutinised in the Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee. Delivery of targets will require action across farming, fishing, forestry, energy and other sectors. The ongoing passage of the Agriculture and Rural Communities (Scotland) Bill is also relevant.
Improving Scotland’s public services
The First Minister stated that making improvements to Scotland’s public services will be his fourth key priority. In his statement, he framed this pledge as “a vital investment in our future health, equality and prosperity”. In setting out how this priority would be addressed, the First Minister restated some existing high-level commitments regarding health and social care. Firstly, he stated that his government would continue to focus on supporting the NHS to recover from the disruption to services caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Secondly, the First Minister committed to working with local authorities to improve social care services and reduce delayed discharges.
Though there were few direct mentions of health and social care issues in the First Minister’s statement, some of the other priority areas identified, such as eradicating child poverty and improving economic growth, may carry indirect benefits for health and social care. Additionally, the First Minister stated that plans for reform of healthcare would be outlined in the next Programme for Government.
Also, under this priority the First Minister made reference to improving educational performance, improving the efficiency of the criminal justice system and expanding the housing supply to meet the needs of the population and tackle homelessness. However, as in other areas of the statement, there was an absence of detail on how these plans would be achieved. For that detail, we will have to wait for the Programme for Government, promised for before the summer recess. The Scottish Government is also committed to twice yearly updates on public service reform – one alongside the MTFS and one alongside the Budget.
Looking ahead
In contrast with his predecessor, the First Minister’s statement on Scottish Government priorities was not accompanied by a policy document providing more detail. Instead, the First Minister signposted to a Programme for Government which he said he would present to Parliament before summer recess. The recess is scheduled to begin on 28 June 2024 with the last meeting of Parliament taking place the day before.
With the UK General Election scheduled to take place on 4 July 2024, it is not yet clear whether that might impact on the First Minister’s plans.
When a Programme for Government is published, SPICe will provide further analysis.
SPICe Research