This blog is one of a series that illustrate how climate change relates to policy areas covered by each subject committee.
With a remit covering rural land use, including forestry, farming and crofting; the food and drink supply chain; animal welfare and wildlife crime; fisheries and aquaculture; and issues relevant to the Islands (Scotland) Act 2018, the work of the Rural Affairs and Islands committee covers many areas with a significant influence on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and our ability to adapt to a changing climate.
A glance at the Sottish Government’s annual Greenhouse Gas Statistics shows emissions across ten headline categories. Of these, emissions in the Agriculture category and in the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry category are of direct relevance to the Committee. Combined, these sectors (i.e. rural land use as a whole) are the biggest source of greenhouse gases in Scotland.
This blog considers emissions from rural land use, the potential for reducing GHGs in this area, and its role in adaptation.
Rural land use – headline emissions, but not the full story
The two most relevant categories relating to “rural land use” are Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) and Agriculture. LULUCF has large “sources” and equally significant “sinks” which remove emissions from the atmosphere, and includes forestry, wetlands, and soils. Agriculture includes, for example, crops and livestock. The following table explains how these categories are made up:
| Category | Net Source or Sink? | Commentary |
| Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry | Forestry (sink) | Trees remove (sequester) emissions from the atmosphere as they grow and lock away carbon in the goods that they produce. |
| Harvested wood products (sink) | These are the goods produced from forestry, and include paper, and sawn and panelled timber products. | |
| Cropland (source) | Land converted to crop production is the dominant source in this category. | |
| Grassland (source) | Grassland can be a sink because conversion to grassland generally results in a gain in soil carbon. | |
| Settlement (source) | Changes from one land use type to another will result in a change in soil carbon stocks over time. This source includes all developed land, including infrastructure and human settlements. | |
| Wetland (Source) | Emissions from peatland are the main source. | |
| Agriculture | Livestock (source) | Cows, sheep and deer all produce methane, a potent GHG. |
| Agricultural soils (source) | Emissions from soil are part of a natural process, however the application of fertiliser also contributes. | |
| Stationary combustion sources and off-road machinery (source) | Tractors, quadbikes and other machinery. |
Top-level Scottish Government figures show that Agriculture emits 19% of Scotland’s emissions, with LULUCF contributing just 1%; meaning that Agriculture is the second largest emitter (after Transport), and LULUCF appears to be the lowest contributor. However, these figures do not tell the full story – on which more below.
First of all, it is important to understand some context, and what Agricultural and LULUCF emissions consist of. The main GHGs are:
- Carbon dioxide (CO₂) from burning fossil fuels and from deforestation
- Methane from ruminant digestion (e.g cows, sheep and deer), animal waste, and from degraded peatlands
- Nitrous oxide from natural processes and from fertiliser
Each gas is weighted by its global warming potential (its warming influence relative to CO₂), so that total GHG emissions can be reported on a consistent basis in common units of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e); most commonly as millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e).
The following figure sets out rural land use emissions by gas, shown in the common unit of MtCO₂e.
For Agriculture, Scotland’s Rural College carried out an analysis showing detailed sources of emissions in 2021 (using 2018 emissions statistics). This work found that just under half of agricultural emissions come from enteric methane (i.e. emitted directly by ruminant livestock). Other larger sources are mobile machinery (e.g. tractors), manure, and inorganic fertilisers.
Land use, land use change and forestry – digging deeper
As previously noted, top-level figures show that Agriculture emits 19% of Scotland’s total emissions, with LULUCF contributing 1%, however combined, emissions from both (making up “rural land use”) are the single biggest emitter in Scotland. Let’s dig deeper …
Headline emissions from LULUCF amount to just 1% (0.4 MtCO₂e), however, this is a net figure and as previously set out, includes large emission “sources” and equally significant “sinks” which remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (known as sequestration).
Detailed datasets show that forestry and harvested wood provide the majority of sequestration, with emissions coming from cropland, grassland, settlement (land-use change), and wetlands (e.g. peatlands). When considered in detail, land-use sources emit 12.3 MtCO₂e and absorb 11.9 MtCO₂e. Presenting LULUCF figures as “net” (emissions minus sequestered emissions) suggests that these are cancelled out. In accounting terms they may be, however in reality they are not. The following figure shows sources and sinks of LULUCF emissions:
For example, forestry in the south of Scotland does not stop emissions from peatlands in Caithness. When land use sinks are filtered out, Agriculture and land use sources combine to contribute 20.1MtCO2e (38%) to Scotland’s total GHG emissions, making land and land use the largest source of emissions.
Tackling emissions from rural land use
Scotland has a net zero target of 2045, five years ahead of the wider UK target of 2050. Statutory adviser the Climate Change Committee (CCC) advised that this was appropriate because of Scotland’s “greater relative capacity to remove emissions than the UK as a whole”. This removal of emissions depends significantly on planting trees and restoring peatlands.
Detailed datasets show that, to date, reductions in agricultural emissions have been limited, with an 11% drop since the 1990 baseline (mainly due to a decrease in livestock numbers).
The Scottish Government sets out “several things that individual agricultural businesses can do to reduce emissions and adapt to a changing climate”, including taking a holistic approach to protecting and enhancing soil; optimising land use; and protecting and regenerating biodiversity.
For LULUCF, reported emissions have been relatively stable, with some fluctuations over recent years – these fluctuations are due to improvements in the methodology for reporting peatland emissions. The Scottish Government expects emissions in this area to increase significantly by 2032, with a rise of over 280%. This is primarily due to the maturing and felling of commercial forestry planted late last century and is expected to fall again towards 2045.
The CCC’s most recent Progress Report on reducing emissions in Scotland found that, for agriculture and land use “there has been limited progress in the past year”, and sets out a series of issues to be addressed, including:
- The Agriculture and Rural Communities (Scotland) Bill lacks detail on the financial support framework that will be offered to farmers and land managers as they transition to post-Common Agricultural Policy. The Scottish Government should set out how future support systems will integrate and address the objectives for food, nature, and climate[1].
- The 2022-23 woodland creation target was missed. A quarter of the approved woodland creation was delayed or not taken forward by landowners, with Scottish Forestry suggesting this is due to skills and capacity issues. Plans are needed to address barriers to meeting future targets, which are also important for UK-wide planting targets.
- The Scottish Government needs to show how it will meet future woodland creation targets following the reduction in spending plans for 2024-25, from a budget of £103.7 million for Scottish Forestry in 2023-24, to £70.1 million in 2024-25.
- The peatland restoration target was missed for the fifth year in a row. The Scottish Government should identify and set out how the current barriers will be addressed.
- Following consultation, the final National Good Food Nation Plan should provide further detail on the emissions reduction potential of dietary choices, particularly relating to meat and dairy consumption.
The Scottish Government made an announcement on climate action in April 2024 comprising a package of future agricultural support, including environmental conditionality; methane suppressing feedstocks; Regional Land Use Partnerships to enable inclusive land use, supporting both net zero and nature recovery goals; and a consultation on options for a carbon land tax.
A draft Just Transition Plan for Land Use and Agriculture is also being developed.
Rural land use – adaptation
Rural land use sectors are reliant on natural resources and are also vulnerable to climate change, with a recent report by ClimateXChange finding that “farmers are already experiencing changing weather patterns and extreme events due to climate change” and that “it is important to act now to increase Scotland’s adaptive capacity, particularly as in the past year Scotland has experienced extreme storms, extreme heat and extended dry periods”.
Increased rainfall, changes in temperature and new pests and diseases may leave crop yields, livestock productivity, forestry and woodlands vulnerable or subject to change. There may also be opportunities relating to productivity in forestry and agriculture, with future changes in climate offering potential improvements in crop suitability or growing seasons.
The CCC noted in its 2023 progress report on climate change adaptation in Scotland that progress has been mixed in relation to agriculture, with “limited policies and plans in place to ensure Scottish agricultural production is adapting to changes in climatic conditions and remaining resilient against further change.”
The Draft Scottish National Adaptation Plan (2024-2029) has since been published. It recognises that:
Our farmers and crofters play a significant role in protecting and enhancing our carbon stores and sinks as key land managers with peatland, woodland and other natural features on their land.
The Draft Plan sets out a series of actions to support rural climate adaptation, much of which is relevant to maintaining and enhancing carbon stores and sinks. This includes:
- Changing agricultural support mechanisms to “become a global leader in sustainable and regenerative agriculture”, with (from 2025) 50% of agricultural funding being conditional on delivering for climate and nature, including climate adaptation. A draft list of measures provides some further detail on what might be expected in order to continue receiving funding.
- Ongoing support through the Preparing for Sustainable Farming Programme which offers funding for farmers and crofters to understand their carbon emissions and sequestration, including through carbon audits and soil sampling and analysis.
- From 2025, to qualify for farming support payments farmers will be required to have the foundations of a ‘Whole Farm Plan’ which will include soil testing, animal health and welfare declarations, carbon audits, biodiversity audits and supported business planning.
Other actions include advice and skills development, research into resilient agricultural production, work on plant health and water management.
Rural land – a wider role
Whilst rural land and rural industries will have to reduce their GHG emissions and adapt to a changing climate to support their own sector, it is also important to recognise the wider role that natural resources (and those who look after it) play in tackling and adapting to climate change.
Described as “natural capital”, this is a term for the world’s stock of natural resources, including the habitats and ecosystems that provide social, environmental and economic benefits to humans. The Scottish Government describes natural capital as “the environmental resources (e.g. plants, animals, air, water, soils) that combine to yield a flow of benefits to people”.
The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) states :
Natural capital is often overlooked: if too much is taken from a financial system we end up bankrupt or owing a debt. The natural world is the same. If we continue to take without replenishing stocks or allowing nature to recover we could end up with ecosystem collapse.
Natural capital is recognised as ‘infrastructure’ by the Scottish Government in Scotland’s Infrastructure Investment Plan:
Scotland’s natural capital is fundamental to our economy and our wellbeing. It supplies the energy and resources on which many industries depend and is the essence of our global brand. It supports our health and quality of life, providing the essentials we all need to survive and thrive, and protecting our communities from flooding and extreme weather. It plays a vital role in tackling climate change – removing carbon from the atmosphere and securing it in natural habitats. Natural areas or systems that are managed to provide multiple benefits for the environment and human wellbeing can be described as ‘natural infrastructure’.
Investment in natural infrastructure creates significant opportunities for improving biodiversity and reducing emissions, while also creating jobs and a wide range of health and wellbeing benefits, including improved urban air quality and protection from flooding.
Natural capital is also a National Indicator within Scotland’s National Performance Framework (NPF) and is measured through the Natural Capital Asset Index (NCAI), a tracking tool made up of data on the health of terrestrial ecosystems (due to be updated in May 2024).
Alasdair Reid, Senior Researcher; Climate Change, Energy and Land Reform
[1] Stage 3 of the Agriculture and Rural Communities (Scotland) Bill is now complete, and awaiting Royal Assent – the final step before becoming law.
The Scottish Government has set out the detail of their plans in the Agricultural Reform Route Map. However, it is not yet clear whether the proposed changes to the framework for support will deliver the required emissions reductions. As with other sectors, there is no quantified plan for how policies will add up to meeting emissions envelopes.